In the wake of a major competition that pitted human forecasters against a rapidly improving AI, the prevailing message from the top of the field is one of unity, not division. The future of forecasting, they argue, is not a contest between man and machine, but a close collaboration that will elevate the practice to new heights.
This collaborative vision was shaped by the results of the Metaculus Cup, where a British AI named ManticAI earned an impressive eighth place, while elite humans still claimed the very top spots. The outcome perfectly illustrated the complementary strengths of the two types of intelligence.
Warren Hatch, CEO of the forecasting firm Good Judgment, co-founded by “superforecasting” pioneer Philip Tetlock, was unequivocal. “The main point for us is that the answer isn’t human or AI, but instead human and AI,” he said. This sentiment captures the professional consensus: the goal is to create a hybrid system that is greater than the sum of its parts.
This collaborative model is also endorsed by those in the heat of the competition. Lubos Saloky, a human forecaster who came in third, embraced the idea of partnership, advising his peers to “merge with them” rather than fight a losing battle. It’s a pragmatic recognition that AI offers capabilities—like 24/7 analysis of dozens of problems—that humans should leverage, not resist.
The contest, therefore, was less an ending to the story of human forecasting and more the beginning of a new chapter. It marks the moment where the industry fully embraced the idea that the path to seeing the future more clearly is one where human intuition and machine logic walk hand-in-hand.